Nature paper: A safe operating space for humanity

A recent feature in the journal Nature (Rockstrom et al. 24th Sept 2009) has highlighted critical biophysical thresholds that could have disastrous consequences for humanity. Disturbance of the global nitrogen and phosphorus cycles aretwo key aspects.

Paper: Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model

Smith et al. (2007) Science, 317, 796-799, have published the results of a new modeling system that predicts both external forcings and internal variability leading to improved forecasts of climate in the next 10 years. Internal variability will partially offset anthropogenic warming until 2008/9. After this point, climate will continue to warm. Richard Kerr in the same issue of Science discusses the importance of natural climate variation e.g. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) over the next few decades.

Scientific Paper: A Changing Climate for Prediction

Cox* and Stephenson (2007)

Science 13th July 2007; Vol 317, Issue 5835, 207-208.

p.m.cox at exeter.ac.uk

Current climate change models are designed to estimate long-term future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. These have been instrumental in convincing the world of the need to act. To inform climate change adaptation and mitigation policy these projections need to be redesigned. Adapatation policy is focussed on preparing for the inevitable climate change that will take place over the coming decades, whereas mitigation is used to refer to how policies can be used to avoid dangerous climate change over the longer term. Forecasting systems that enable active management of the world's climate are now required.